Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
326 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Butch Ware finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Will Butch Ware finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Butch Ware
KXCAGOV3RD-26JUN02-3-BWAR
Analysis
This contract estimates a 3% probability that Xavier Becerra finishes third in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary election. Becerra, the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, would need to enter the race and accumulate enough votes to place third among all candidates without winning outright or coming second. The low probability reflects that Becerra has not announced a candidacy and remains focused on his federal role, making entry itself uncertain. Primary results will be determined on June 7, 2026, when California voters cast ballots. Key drivers of the probability include whether Becerra announces candidacy before the filing deadline, his performance relative to other major candidates like Governor Newsom or other potential contenders, and overall voter appetite for a candidate with his profile and background. The primary election itself will definitively resolve this contract.
- ›Becerra has not declared candidacy as of June 2026 and is serving as HHS Secretary, making primary entry a prerequisite for any third-place finish
- ›California's 2026 gubernatorial primary will feature multiple candidates; Becerra's third-place positioning depends on specific vote distributions among all participants
- ›Polling data and candidate announcements in the months before the June 7, 2026 primary election will provide concrete evidence of voter support levels
- ›Filing deadlines and campaign infrastructure requirements establish hard constraints on which candidates can viably compete
- ›Third-place vote share thresholds vary depending on total candidate field size and voter turnout patterns
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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