Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Tom Steyer finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This illiquid market with just $150 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows extreme asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a striking 296.9% implied yield versus 26.5% for No—a red flag for mispricing or sparse trading.
Analysis
This illiquid market with just $150 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows extreme asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a striking 296.9% implied yield versus 26.5% for No—a red flag for mispricing or sparse trading. The 26¢ price has risen sharply from 16¢ over seven days (62.5% movement), suggesting either new information about Steyer's viability or thin-book volatility rather than fundamental conviction. With 412 days to expiration and a modest 7¢ spread, this market lacks the depth to trust its pricing; the high cliff risk index (3) indicates meaningful tail risk around resolution.
Resolution rules
If Tom Steyer finishes in 3rd place in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXCAGOV3RD-26JUN02-3-TSTE yes 100