Will Marc Andreessen announce they're leaving California?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Marc Andreessen announce they're leaving California?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $415 open interest, making the 687.6% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading rather than actionable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $415 open interest, making the 687.6% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading rather than actionable. The 6¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 18¢ price, and the cliff risk index of 5 suggests significant uncertainty around resolution criteria or timing near the January 2027 expiry. With 259 days remaining and no recent price movement, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than an efficiently-priced prediction.
Resolution rules
If Marc Andreessen announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-MAND yes 100