Will the Bank of Israel Cut 1-25bps at the Monetary Committee meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will the Bank of Israel Cut 1-25bps at the Monetary Committee meeting?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing July 6, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a stratospheric 2380% annualized return against just 86.3% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of a rate cut scenario or minimal conviction among traders.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a stratospheric 2380% annualized return against just 86.3% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of a rate cut scenario or minimal conviction among traders. The 9¢ spread is substantial relative to the 16¢ price, and zero 24h volume combined with only $62 open interest indicates this contract lacks meaningful price discovery. The recent 2¢ decline over seven days and moderate cliff risk (5/10) warrant caution, though the July 2026 meeting date provides 81 days for fundamental shifts in Bank of Israel policy expectations.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Israel takes the action of Cut 1-25bps at the July Monetary Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDISRAEL-26JUL06-C25 yes 100