Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting

Analysis

This probability measures whether Mexico's central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate by more than 50 basis points at its May 2026 monetary policy meeting. At 19%, the market indicates this outcome is unlikely. The low probability reflects that larger rate cuts are typically reserved for economic emergencies or crisis conditions. The market appears to be pricing in either a smaller cut (25 basis points, currently at 82¢) or rate maintenance (6¢). The main catalyst is the Bank of Mexico's actual decision at the May meeting, which will depend on Mexico's inflation trajectory, economic growth data, peso strength, and Federal Reserve policy signals. Any new inflation data, currency volatility, or central bank communications before the meeting could shift expectations significantly.

• ›The 25 basis point cut contract is trading at 82¢, suggesting markets expect either a 25bp cut or no cut rather than 50bp+
• ›Contemporaneous Fed policy signals matter significantly—tighter US policy would constrain Mexico's room to cut aggressively
• ›Recent inflation readings and peso depreciation trends would indicate whether emergency-level 50bp+ cuts are justified
• ›The Bank of Mexico's pre-meeting communications and recent statement language provide signal of their policy direction
• ›Economic growth data and credit conditions in Mexico between now and the May meeting could shift cut probability upward or downward

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds