Will the Bank of Israel Cut more than 25bps at the Monetary Committee meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will the Bank of Israel Cut more than 25bps at the Monetary Committee meeting?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing July 6, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal $264 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal $264 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable. The 10,874% implied yield on the Yes side is a statistical artifact of the low price rather than a genuine opportunity, while the 2¢ spread and moderate 24 cliff risk index (0-100 scale) suggest limited market confidence in either outcome. With 81 days to expiry and no recent trading activity, this appears to be a thinly-traded niche contract where the quoted probability may not reflect true market consensus on Bank of Israel monetary policy.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Israel takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at the July Monetary Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDISRAEL-26JUL06-C25P yes 100