Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. This market has collapsed 44% over seven days to 10¢, suggesting deteriorating confidence in Oklo's ability to reach criticality within 106 days, though the extreme 3095% implied yield on the Yes side indicates the market may be pricing in tail risk rather than genuine probability.
Analysis
This market has collapsed 44% over seven days to 10¢, suggesting deteriorating confidence in Oklo's ability to reach criticality within 106 days, though the extreme 3095% implied yield on the Yes side indicates the market may be pricing in tail risk rather than genuine probability. The zero 24-hour volume combined with a 6¢ spread on just $3,962 open interest signals severe illiquidity, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With a cliff risk index of 9 and binary resolution tied to a single company's near-term milestone, this market carries substantial execution risk and may be better suited for informed insiders than casual traders.
Resolution rules
If Oklo achieves criticality before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-OKLO yes 100