Will the US fall below 7.00 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will the US fall below 7.00 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2029. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 147.6% annualized return versus just 7.1% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of downside risk despite the 24% probability reflecting a relatively low baseline expectation.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 147.6% annualized return versus just 7.1% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of downside risk despite the 24% probability reflecting a relatively low baseline expectation. The $0 24-hour volume and modest $2,687.76 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the 6¢ spread potentially misleading as a true execution cost. With over three years until expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in substantial stability in US democratic institutions, though the 74% risk-adjusted yield warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine consensus or simply thin trading conditions.
Resolution rules
If the United States falls below 7.00 in any year between 2025 and 2028 on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEMOCRACYUS-28-7.00 yes 100