Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will the US fall below 7.25 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2029. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,188 in open interest, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,188 in open interest, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 75.6% implied yield on the Yes side is notably high relative to the 13.9% No yield, suggesting either underpricing of downside risk or thin-market distortion, though the risk-adjusted yield of 38% moderates this concern somewhat. With over three years until expiration and minimal recent price movement (29¢ to 30¢ over seven days), this appears to be a speculative position with low conviction from the market.
Resolution rules
If the United States falls below 7.25 in any year between 2025 and 2028 on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEMOCRACYUS-28-7.25 yes 100