Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will the US fall below 7.50 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2029. The market is pricing a 52% probability of US democracy declining below 7.50 on the Economist's Index during Trump's term, with a notably high implied yield of 33.7% for Yes positions despite over three years until expiration, suggesting either significant uncertainty or underpricing relative to historical volatility.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 52% probability of US democracy declining below 7.50 on the Economist's Index during Trump's term, with a notably high implied yield of 33.7% for Yes positions despite over three years until expiration, suggesting either significant uncertainty or underpricing relative to historical volatility. With only $3,421 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, liquidity is extremely thin, making the 3¢ spread potentially misleading for actual trade execution. The recent price movement from 46¢ to 49¢ over seven days indicates modest bullish momentum toward the Yes outcome, though the lack of trading activity raises questions about whether this reflects genuine market conviction or simply reflects the last trade executed.
Resolution rules
If the United States falls below 7.50 in any year between 2025 and 2028 on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEMOCRACYUS-28-7.50 yes 100