Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will the US fall below 7.60 during the Trump Administration on the Economist's Democracy Index between 2025 and 2028. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2029. The 84¢ price reflects extremely high conviction that the US will drop below 7.60 on the Democracy Index during Trump's term, yet the market shows virtually no liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $4,827 open interest—suggesting this pricing may not reflect genuine market depth.
Analysis
The 84¢ price reflects extremely high conviction that the US will drop below 7.60 on the Democracy Index during Trump's term, yet the market shows virtually no liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $4,827 open interest—suggesting this pricing may not reflect genuine market depth. The asymmetric implied yields (7.6% for Yes vs. 138.1% for No) indicate severe mispricing risk, with the No side offering dramatically better risk-adjusted returns at 69%, suggesting either the Yes position is overconfident or the market lacks sufficient capital to correct it. With over three years until expiry and a modest 3¢ spread, this appears to be a thin, illiquid market where the high price may reflect limited competition rather than fundamental conviction about US democratic backsliding.
Resolution rules
If the United States falls below 7.60 in any year between 2025 and 2028 on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEMOCRACYUS-28-7.60 yes 100