Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 640% implied yield on the Yes side versus 31% on the No side, suggesting the 20¢ price may undervalue tail risk around ICE removals exceeding 500,000 in FY2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 640% implied yield on the Yes side versus 31% on the No side, suggesting the 20¢ price may undervalue tail risk around ICE removals exceeding 500,000 in FY2026. The zero 24-hour volume and modest $3,592 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the wide 6¢ spread potentially unrepresentative of true fair value. With 794% realized volatility and a notable 5-point cliff risk index, this appears to be a speculative, thinly-traded contract where the extreme Yes yield may reflect either genuine uncertainty about immigration enforcement policy or simply a liquidity desert rather than genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If the number of ICE removals is above 500,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T500000 yes 100