Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026
Leader sits at 95% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 200,000
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above 300,000
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$74
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of ICE removals be above
Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?: Above 600,000
KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T600000
Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?: Above 500,000
KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T500000
Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?: Above 400,000
KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T400000
Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026?: Above 300,000
KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T300000
Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?: Above 200,000
KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T200000
Analysis
This probability reflects whether U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement will conduct more than 400,000 removals during the 2026 fiscal year (October 2025 through September 2026). At 51%, the market is pricing this as a near coin-flip outcome. The current level reflects uncertainty around enforcement policy direction and resource allocation under the current administration, as removals depend on detention capacity, personnel funding, and prosecutorial priorities. The key catalyst will be the actual removal figures released by ICE in quarterly reports throughout FY2026, with the mid-year data point (around March 2026) providing early signals of whether the pace would reach the 400,000 threshold if maintained. Historical context matters: removals have ranged significantly by administration, making this threshold neither historically extreme nor trivially easy to achieve.
- ›ICE detention bed capacity and occupancy rates directly constrain removal operations and will determine physical processing capability
- ›Congressional appropriations for ICE operations, personnel, and immigration enforcement priorities will influence resource availability for removals
- ›Quarter-by-quarter removal data releases (October 2025, January 2026, April 2026, July 2026) will provide concrete evidence of current pace versus the 400,000 annual target
- ›Policy changes regarding prosecutorial discretion and enforcement priorities could materially shift removal operations above or below historical trends
- ›State-level cooperation agreements and cooperation from local jurisdictions affect ICE's ability to access detained individuals for removal proceedings
What moved the line
- Jun 21Above 600,000↑8pp15→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 500,000↑4pp28→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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