Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026
Leader sits at 96% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 400,000
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Above 450,000
Spread
88pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$5
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
99 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of ICE removals be above 4
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will remove at least 400,000 individuals in fiscal year 2026, currently priced at 97% likelihood. The high confidence is driven by recent removal trends and stated enforcement priorities. The main factors pulling this estimate upward are continuation of current policy enforcement levels and available enforcement resources; downward pressure could come from legal challenges, resource constraints, or policy shifts. The fiscal year ends September 30, 2026, meaning the final FY2026 removal count will be published by ICE within weeks of that date, providing definitive resolution. The subsidiary markets show traders assign 79% odds to exceeding 450,000 removals and only 24% to exceeding 500,000, suggesting confidence in the 400,000 threshold but uncertainty about higher levels.
- ›ICE removal data for FY2024 and FY2025 will establish baseline trends; FY2024 reported approximately 125,000 deportations with broader enforcement actions
- ›Current monthly removal pace relative to the 400,000 annualized target; halfway through FY2026 (August 10), actual removals to date must be tracked against proportional benchmarks
- ›Policy and legal environment affecting enforcement authority; court injunctions or legislative changes could materially reduce removal capacity
- ›Resource allocation and staffing levels within ICE; budget constraints or personnel limitations directly constrain operational removal volumes
- ›Final FY2026 removal statistics will be officially published by ICE in October 2026, providing binary resolution
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above 450,000↑10pp19→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above 450,000↓8pp29→21¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Above 450,000↓4pp21→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 400,000↓4pp96→92¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above 400,000↑4pp92→96¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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