What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing September 30, 2026. The market is pricing in a 71% probability that Progressive will mention "catastrophe" during their next earnings call, but the extremely high implied yield on the No side (389.7%) suggests significant skepticism about this specific word choice despite the company's insurance focus.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 71% probability that Progressive will mention "catastrophe" during their next earnings call, but the extremely high implied yield on the No side (389.7%) suggests significant skepticism about this specific word choice despite the company's insurance focus. With only $316.59 in 24-hour volume against $1,096.30 open interest and a 7-cent spread, liquidity is notably thin for a market with 167 days to expiration, indicating limited conviction among traders. The sharp 8-cent price rise over seven days combined with a low Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggests the market may be overweighting the probability—insurance companies typically use euphemisms like "losses" or "claims" rather than the word "catastrophe" in formal earnings communications.
Resolution rules
If Catastrophe is said by any The Progressive Corporation representative (including the operator of the call) during the next The Progressive Corporation earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade KXEARNINGSMENTIONPGR-26APR15-CATA yes 100