What is the current probability for "What will Starbucks Corporation say during their next earnings call?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 80¢ (80% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on September 30, 2026. 155 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "What will Starbucks Corporation say during their next earnings call?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 62.4% and 883.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

What will Starbucks Corporation say during their next earnings call?

Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that What will Starbucks Corporation say during their next earnings call?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Kalshi, closing September 30, 2026.

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80¢

Bid/Ask 79/80¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $625.32·OI $1,405.37·Closes Sep 30, 2026·155d remaining

KXEARNINGSMENTIONSBUX-26APR28-LOYA

7-day price89 snapshots · 6 regime

81¢79¢ current

Apr 1724¢Apr 28

Resolution rules

If Loyalty is said by any Starbucks Corporation representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Starbucks Corporation earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 62.4%

IY (No) 883.5%

Adj IY 839%

CRI 4

RV 199%

VR 2.46

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	62.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	883.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	839%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	199%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.46	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/28/2026, 3:54:12 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/28/2026, 3:53:54 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXEARNINGSMENTIONSBUX-26APR28-LOYA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

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