What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 93% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
93%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
148 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Intel will mention artificial intelligence during their next earnings call. The 24-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (76%) and Kalshi (52%) suggests disagreement about whether AI discussion is likely, with Polymarket participants assigning higher confidence. Intel's earnings call will occur when the company reports quarterly financial results, typically providing prepared remarks and management commentary on business operations, competitive positioning, and strategic priorities. Markets weighing this outcome would monitor whether AI appears in prepared statements, analyst Q&A, or forward guidance. Resolution depends on the actual earnings call transcript and whether AI-related topics are substantively discussed versus merely mentioned in passing.
- ›Intel's competitive position relative to NVIDIA and AMD in AI chip markets, as this directly influences whether AI will be a focus during earnings commentary
- ›The timing and extent of Intel's AI product launches and customer adoption metrics leading up to the earnings call
- ›Historical frequency of Intel mentioning AI during previous earnings calls as a baseline for expectations
- ›Broader semiconductor market conditions and investor sentiment toward AI infrastructure spending at the time of the call
- ›The specific definition used for resolution—whether passing mention of AI qualifies or substantive discussion is required
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (93% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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