Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?

The Republican contract at 32¢ reflects a significant Democratic lean in FL-25, though the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 1232% and an implied yield of 371% on the Yes side suggest substantial uncertainty or potential mispricing in this deep-red district. With 200 days to expiry and modest $1.2M daily volume against $13.9M open interest, the 3¢ spread is reasonable, but the 5.69 volatility ratio indicates outsized price swings relative to information flow (2.8 arrivals/hour), warranting caution about whether current pricing reflects fundamentals or temporary dislocations. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action (33¢ to 32¢) suggest the market hasn't yet incorporated major campaign developments or demographic shifts that typically emerge closer to the 2026 midterms.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade