Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 10¢ Yes price implying only a 10% probability for Ethereum trading in the $2,350-$2,389.99 range on April 24, 2026, yet the Yes implied yield reaches an astronomical 100,000% while realized volatility sits at 7,825%, suggesting massive historical price swings that contradict such a narrow probability assessment.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 10¢ Yes price implying only a 10% probability for Ethereum trading in the $2,350-$2,389.99 range on April 24, 2026, yet the Yes implied yield reaches an astronomical 100,000% while realized volatility sits at 7,825%, suggesting massive historical price swings that contradict such a narrow probability assessment. The illiquid market ($37.38 open interest, $35.38 daily volume, 5¢ spread) and high cliff risk index of 16 indicate thin order books vulnerable to sharp repricing, while the recent 7-day price decline from 7¢ to 6¢ may reflect either genuine bearish sentiment or liquidity-driven selling in this thinly-traded contract. With only 5 days to expiration and an info arrival rate of 1.2 events per hour, any significant Ethereum price movement could trigger rapid repricing in this highly volatile micromarket.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between 2350-2389.99 at 5 PM EDT on Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETH-26APR2417-B2370 yes 100