SimpleFunctions
ClosedFinal: $2,050 to 2,089.99. Last odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 12, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all answer·7 source contracts·Kalshi 7·closed just now·Closes Jun 12, 2026 · 1d

Ethereum price at Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Leader sits at 23% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

23%

$1,650 to 1,689.99

runner-up 18¢leader 23¢

Outcomes

7

winner-take-all

Runner-up

18¢

$1,610 to 1,649.99

Spread

5pp

contested

24h volume

$3K

modest

Closes

Jun 12, 2026

1 days

Venue

Kalshi

7 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday$1,650 to 1,689.99: 19% (7 days, 7 points)$1,650 to 1,689.99: 19% on 2026-06-11$1,610 to 1,649.99: 13% (7 days, 7 points)$1,610 to 1,649.99: 13% on 2026-06-11$1,690 to 1,729.99: 10% (7 days, 7 points)$1,690 to 1,729.99: 10% on 2026-06-11
$1,650 to 1,689.9919¢$1,610 to 1,649.9913¢$1,690 to 1,729.9910¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 7d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This represents a 67% market probability that Ethereum will trade between $2,000 and $2,039.99 on May 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT. The leading probability reflects trader expectations that Ethereum will remain within a relatively tight mid-range band. The current level is primarily driven by recent price stability and open interest concentrated in the $1,960–$2,040 range across multiple contract dates. Key factors pushing this probability include macro conditions affecting crypto valuations and near-term technical support levels. The main uncertainty resolver will be actual Ethereum spot price on the specified date; traders are also monitoring adjacent price bins ($1,960–$1,999.99 and $2,040–$2,079.99), which together account for 24% probability, indicating meaningful disagreement on whether Ethereum will break above or below the leading range.

  • Highest trading volume ($689 24h) concentrated in the $1,960–$1,999.99 bin, suggesting floor support but lower conviction than the leader
  • The $2,000–$2,039.99 contract trades at 66¢ on Kalshi versus adjacent ranges at 18¢ and 6¢, indicating strong consensus for this specific band
  • Multiple contracts reference June 5, 2026 at lower probabilities, showing traders expect either resolution by May 30 or potential price drift outside current ranges over six days
  • The 11-contract structure creates winner-take-all dynamics; any price outcome outside $1,880–$2,079.99 would shift probability sharply to an unrepresented bin
  • Total Kalshi volume across top five contracts is $1,684 over 24 hours, reflecting active but not exceptionally deep liquidity for this specific event

What moved the line

  • Jun 10$1,610 to 1,649.996pp1117¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 11$1,530 to 1,569.995pp94¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 11$1,610 to 1,649.994pp1713¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 10$1,730 to 1,769.994pp95¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 10$1,570 to 1,609.994pp1115¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in bitcoin

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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