ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8% probability on a specific $250 ETH price band, generating a stratospheric 1619% implied yield for Yes positions despite 259 days to expiry.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8% probability on a specific $250 ETH price band, generating a stratospheric 1619% implied yield for Yes positions despite 259 days to expiry. The $55k open interest and minimal $250 daily volume suggest severe illiquidity, making the 1¢ spread potentially misleading given the cliff risk index of 12 and the binary nature of the resolution window. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action mask the fact that this represents a tail outcome (ETH would need to collapse ~90% from current levels), yet the risk-adjusted yield of 810% indicates sophisticated traders may see hidden value in the asymmetric payoff structure.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSD_RTI before 12 AM EST is between 2250.00-2499.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2375 yes 100