ETH price on Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 13% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1,750 to 1,999.99
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
999.99 or below
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
149 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
eth price on jan 1, 2027
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,000 to 2,249.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2125
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,750 to 1,999.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1875
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,250 to 1,499.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1375
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,250 to 2,499.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2375
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,500 to 1,749.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1625
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,000 to 1,249.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1125
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 999.99 or below
KXETHY-27JAN0100-T1000.00
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 5,000 or above
KXETHY-27JAN0100-T4999.99
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 3,250 to 3,499.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B3375
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 3,000 to 3,249.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B3125
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,750 to 2,999.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2875
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,500 to 2,749.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2625
Analysis
This represents traders' assessment that Ethereum will trade at or below $999.99 on January 1, 2027—currently assigned 13% probability, with most traders betting on prices between $1,000 and $2,250. The relatively low probability of sub-$1,000 pricing reflects recent price levels and general market expectations of modest appreciation or stability over the next five months. Key drivers include macro interest rate policy, Bitcoin's trajectory (which typically correlates with Ethereum), and institutional adoption trends. The resolution date itself—January 1, 2027—is fixed, but traders will reassess continuously based on Federal Reserve decisions, broader crypto market sentiment, and any major Ethereum network developments or regulatory announcements that could shift long-term value assessments.
- ›ETH's current trading price relative to the $999.99 floor and volatility patterns over the past six months
- ›Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and broader macroeconomic conditions through December 2026
- ›Bitcoin price performance and correlation, as BTC movements typically drive Ethereum valuations
- ›Regulatory announcements or enforcement actions affecting Ethereum or crypto markets between now and year-end
- ›Institutional adoption metrics and Ethereum network activity (transaction volume, staking participation, layer-2 scaling adoption)
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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