ETH price on Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 11% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1,250 to 1,499.99
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
1,500 to 1,749.99
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$249
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
196 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
eth price on jan 1, 2027
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,500 to 1,749.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1625
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,250 to 2,499.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2375
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 5,000 or above
KXETHY-27JAN0100-T4999.99
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 999.99 or below
KXETHY-27JAN0100-T1000.00
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,750 to 2,999.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2875
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 2,000 to 2,249.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2125
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,750 to 1,999.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1875
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,250 to 1,499.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1375
ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?: 1,000 to 1,249.99
KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1125
Analysis
The 9% probability reflects that traders across multiple derivative platforms assess the probability of Ethereum trading between $2,125 and $2,249.99 on January 1, 2027 as relatively low. This outcome sits in the lower-to-middle range of possible price scenarios traders are pricing in. The estimate is driven primarily by current ETH price levels and historical volatility patterns; upward movement would require sustained bullish momentum over the next seven months, while a decline would expand the likelihood of lower price bands. Actual ETH price movement through year-end 2026 will be the determining factor, with macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and cryptocurrency market sentiment serving as the primary variables shaping whether this specific price band is reached.
- ›The leading contract represents 9 cents per dollar, indicating asymmetric probability mass across twelve price bands rather than a 50/50 scenario
- ›Volume concentration ($4.8k-$4.7k) in the $70k-$79,999 BTC price ranges suggests traders expect broader crypto strength, which historically correlates with ETH outperformance
- ›Seven-month time horizon to resolution (Jan 1, 2027) allows for multiple policy changes, market cycles, and macroeconomic shifts that materially affect cryptocurrency valuations
- ›Current ETH price relative to the $2,125-$2,249.99 band determines whether the band represents appreciation, depreciation, or sideways movement from today's level
- ›The runner-up contract at 8% indicates tight probability clustering across adjacent outcomes, suggesting high uncertainty in final price discovery
What moved the line
- Jun 162,000 to 2,249.99↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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