ETH price on Jan 1, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents traders' assessment that Ethereum will trade at or below $999.99 on January 1, 2027—currently assigned 13% probability, with most traders betting on prices between $1,000 and $2,250. The relatively low probability of sub-$1,000 pricing reflects recent price levels and general market expectations of modest appreciation or stability over the next five months. Key drivers include macro interest rate policy, Bitcoin's trajectory (which typically correlates with Ethereum), and institutional adoption trends. The resolution date itself—January 1, 2027—is fixed, but traders will reassess continuously based on Federal Reserve decisions, broader crypto market sentiment, and any major Ethereum network developments or regulatory announcements that could shift long-term value assessments.

• ›ETH's current trading price relative to the $999.99 floor and volatility patterns over the past six months
• ›Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and broader macroeconomic conditions through December 2026
• ›Bitcoin price performance and correlation, as BTC movements typically drive Ethereum valuations
• ›Regulatory announcements or enforcement actions affecting Ethereum or crypto markets between now and year-end
• ›Institutional adoption metrics and Ethereum network activity (transaction volume, staking participation, layer-2 scaling adoption)

What moved the line

• Sep 192,250 to 2,499.99↓3pp17→14¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 172,750 to 2,999.99↑3pp8→11¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds