SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·12 source contracts·Kalshi 12·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 149d

ETH price on Jan 1, 2027

Leader sits at 13% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

13%

1,750 to 1,999.99

runner-up 12¢leader 13¢

Outcomes

12

winner-take-all

Runner-up

12¢

999.99 or below

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$2K

modest

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

149 days

Venue

Kalshi

12 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday1,750 to 1,999.99: 12% (27 days, 15 points)1,750 to 1,999.99: 12% on 2026-08-04999.99 or below: 12% (27 days, 21 points)999.99 or below: 12% on 2026-08-012,000 to 2,249.99: 12% (27 days, 21 points)2,000 to 2,249.99: 12% on 2026-08-04
1,750 to 1,999.9912¢999.99 or below12¢2,000 to 2,249.9912¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 27d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This represents traders' assessment that Ethereum will trade at or below $999.99 on January 1, 2027—currently assigned 13% probability, with most traders betting on prices between $1,000 and $2,250. The relatively low probability of sub-$1,000 pricing reflects recent price levels and general market expectations of modest appreciation or stability over the next five months. Key drivers include macro interest rate policy, Bitcoin's trajectory (which typically correlates with Ethereum), and institutional adoption trends. The resolution date itself—January 1, 2027—is fixed, but traders will reassess continuously based on Federal Reserve decisions, broader crypto market sentiment, and any major Ethereum network developments or regulatory announcements that could shift long-term value assessments.

  • ETH's current trading price relative to the $999.99 floor and volatility patterns over the past six months
  • Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and broader macroeconomic conditions through December 2026
  • Bitcoin price performance and correlation, as BTC movements typically drive Ethereum valuations
  • Regulatory announcements or enforcement actions affecting Ethereum or crypto markets between now and year-end
  • Institutional adoption metrics and Ethereum network activity (transaction volume, staking participation, layer-2 scaling adoption)

Recently closed in crypto

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.