ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely low probability (7%) for ETH trading in the $2,500-$2,750 range on Jan 1, 2027, generating an exceptional 1,871% annualized yield for "Yes" positions despite thin liquidity of just $51,378 open interest.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely low probability (7%) for ETH trading in the $2,500-$2,750 range on Jan 1, 2027, generating an exceptional 1,871% annualized yield for "Yes" positions despite thin liquidity of just $51,378 open interest. The 1-cent spread and modest 24-hour volume of $367 suggest limited market depth, while the recent price movement from 6¢ to 7¢ indicates slight bullish pressure, though the neutral regime score (0.341) suggests no strong directional conviction. With 259 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, this contract appears underpriced relative to ETH's historical volatility, particularly given that $2,500-$2,750 represents only a modest 15-25% decline from current levels.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSD_RTI before 12 AM EST is between 2500.00-2749.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2625 yes 100