ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 6¢ price implies an extremely low 6% probability that ETH trades between $2,750-$2,999.99 on Jan 1, 2027, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 2206% annualized yield, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk undervaluation.
Analysis
The 6¢ price implies an extremely low 6% probability that ETH trades between $2,750-$2,999.99 on Jan 1, 2027, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 2206% annualized yield, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk undervaluation. With only $52.5K open interest and $3.8K daily volume, liquidity is thin enough that the 1¢ spread may not reflect true market consensus, and the 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates elevated binary event risk near expiration. The neutral regime and 259-day timeframe suggest this pricing may reflect either deep skepticism about ETH reaching that specific band or a liquidity-driven anomaly rather than fundamental conviction.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSD_RTI before 12 AM EST is between 2750.00-2999.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2875 yes 100