ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market prices an extremely narrow ETH price band ($3,000-$3,249.99) at just 6% probability, generating an extraordinary 2,676% implied yield on the Yes side despite moderate $57.5k open interest and thin $895.9 daily volume.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely narrow ETH price band ($3,000-$3,249.99) at just 6% probability, generating an extraordinary 2,676% implied yield on the Yes side despite moderate $57.5k open interest and thin $895.9 daily volume. The 1¢ spread and recent price recovery from 4¢ to 5¢ suggest some accumulating conviction, though the 19 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant tail risk around the precise resolution boundaries. With 259 days to expiry and neutral regime conditions, this appears to be a contrarian bet on ETH consolidating in a tight range—a historically unlikely outcome given crypto's volatility profile.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSD_RTI before 12 AM EST is between 3000.00-3249.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHY-27JAN0100-B3125 yes 100