ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 4¢ (4% probability) price generating a staggering 3379% implied yield on the Yes side, while the No side offers only 5.9%—a massive asymmetry suggesting the Yes contract is severely undervalued relative to the ~$3,250-$3,500 ETH price range required for resolution.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 4¢ (4% probability) price generating a staggering 3379% implied yield on the Yes side, while the No side offers only 5.9%—a massive asymmetry suggesting the Yes contract is severely undervalued relative to the ~$3,250-$3,500 ETH price range required for resolution. The zero 24-hour volume and $19,713 open interest indicate dangerously low liquidity, making the 1¢ spread potentially misleading and creating significant execution risk for any meaningful position size. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral market regime, this appears to be a classic thin-market mispricing rather than a fundamental bearish signal on ETH, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index (24) warrants caution around potential late-stage volatility.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSD_RTI before 12 AM EST is between 3250.00-3499.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHY-27JAN0100-B3375 yes 100