Will MegaETH FDV be above $1000000000 at 10:00 AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will MegaETH FDV be above $1000000000 at 10:00 AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,847 open interest, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable for actual position-taking.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,847 open interest, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable for actual position-taking. The 400% implied yield on the Yes side is notably high relative to the 260-day timeframe, suggesting either significant underpricing or substantial tail risk that the market hasn't fully priced in. The 6¢ spread and stagnant price over seven days indicate minimal trading activity, so any meaningful position would likely face substantial slippage.
Resolution rules
If MegaETH (MEGAETH)'s fully diluted valuation (FDV) as displayed on CoinGecko is above 1000000000 at exactly 10:00 AM ET on the day after its launch, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFDVMEGAETH-27JAN01-1000000000 yes 100