Will MegaETH FDV be above $2000000000 at 10:00 AM ET on Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$263K
14 contracts
Closes
Jan 27, 2027
159 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will the maximum SP500 value reach” vs “Will Ethereum reach above $”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the maximum SP500 value reach
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7999.99 by Jan 1, 2027?: 8,000 or above
KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-7999.99
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8199.99 by Jan 1, 2027?: 8,200 or above
KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-8199.99
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8999.99 by Jan 1, 2027?: 9,000 or above
KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-8999.99
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8599.99 by Jan 1, 2027?: 8,600 or above
KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-8599.99
Cluster 2
Will Ethereum reach above $
Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $3,500.00
KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-3500.00
Will Ethereum reach above $4500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $4,500.00
KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-4500.00
Will Ethereum reach above $5000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?: Above $5,000.00
KXETHMAXY-27JAN01-5000.00
Cluster 3
Will Bitcoin be above $
Cluster 4
Will Opensea FDV be above $
Cluster 5
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.00%
KXFED-27JAN-T4.00
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.25%
KXFED-27JAN-T3.25
Cluster 6
Will Tesla Inc report above 1000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027
Will Tesla Inc report above 1000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?: Above 1000
KXTESLASEMI-27JAN-1000
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 24% chance that MegaETH's fully diluted valuation (FDV) will exceed $2 billion by New Year's Day 2027—about 5.5 months away. The probability reflects the token's current market position relative to the $2 billion threshold and the volatility typically seen in altcoins during crypto market cycles. MegaETH's FDV depends primarily on total token supply and market price. Upward pressure would come from sustained cryptocurrency market strength or MegaETH-specific adoption; downward pressure from a broader crypto pullback or competitive pressure from other tokens. The resolution occurs at a fixed date with no scheduled catalyst, so the outcome hinges on organic market movements and investor demand through the year-end period. Historical token performance and current FDV relative to the target provide the baseline for probability assessment.
- ›MegaETH's current FDV relative to the $2 billion target determines how much appreciation is needed
- ›Overall cryptocurrency market conditions through late 2026, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum performance, typically influence altcoin valuations
- ›Total circulating and fully diluted token supply of MegaETH and whether any unlock events occur before resolution
- ›Trading volume and liquidity depth on major exchanges, which affect price discovery and volatility
- ›Competitive landscape and relative adoption metrics versus comparable projects in the same category
What moved the line
- Aug 188,200 or above↓13pp47→34¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 148,200 or above↑11pp36→47¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 188,000 or above↓10pp70→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above $3,500.00↑8pp16→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above 3.25%↓8pp73→65¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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