Will MegaETH FDV be above $2000000000 at 10:00 AM ET on Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$55K
14 contracts
Closes
Jan 27, 2027
216 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will the maximum SP500 value reach” vs “Will Opensea FDV be above $”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the maximum SP500 value reach
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8599.99 by Jan 1, 2027?: 8,600 or above
KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-8599.99
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7999.99 by Jan 1, 2027?: 8,000 or above
KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-7999.99
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7799.99 by Jan 1, 2027?: 7,800 or above
KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-7799.99
Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8199.99 by Jan 1, 2027?: 8,200 or above
KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-8199.99
Cluster 2
Will Opensea FDV be above $
Will Opensea FDV be above $1999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $2,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-1999999999
Will Opensea FDV be above $9999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $10,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-9999999999
Will Opensea FDV be above $4999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $5,000,000,000+
KXFDVOPENSEA-27JAN01-4999999999
Cluster 3
Will Bitcoin be above $
Cluster 4
Will Ethereum reach above $
Cluster 5
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.25%
KXFED-27JAN-T3.25
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.00%
KXFED-27JAN-T4.00
Cluster 6
Will Tesla Inc report above 1000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027
Will Tesla Inc report above 1000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?: Above 1000
KXTESLASEMI-27JAN-1000
Analysis
This market asks whether MegaETH will have a fully diluted valuation exceeding $2 billion by January 1, 2027—roughly seven months away. The 32% probability reflects moderate skepticism about the asset reaching that valuation threshold. The outcome primarily depends on broader crypto market conditions, particularly whether Ethereum and major cryptocurrencies sustain or exceed current price levels, since token valuations typically correlate with the overall market environment. Secondary factors include MegaETH-specific adoption metrics and competition from other layer-2 or alternative platforms. The resolution will be determined by publicly available market data on January 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET, with no scheduled catalysts between now and then—the probability will adjust gradually based on crypto market movements and any project-specific announcements or developments.
- ›Current Ethereum and broader crypto market prices at resolution will directly influence whether a $2B FDV for MegaETH is plausible relative to comparable projects
- ›MegaETH's token supply and circulating supply structure determines the token price needed to achieve the $2B FDV target
- ›Competitive positioning among Ethereum scaling solutions and layer-2 protocols will affect relative valuation multiples assigned to the ecosystem
- ›Historical correlation between Bitcoin/Ethereum price movements and altcoin valuations suggests macro crypto market direction is the primary driver of this outcome
- ›Any major protocol upgrades, regulatory changes, or security issues affecting Ethereum or the broader ecosystem between now and January 1, 2027 could significantly alter the probability
What moved the line
- Jun 228,000 or above↓11pp43→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 197,800 or above↓10pp67→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 188,000 or above↓9pp48→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above 4.00%↓9pp26→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 187,800 or above↓8pp75→67¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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