Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This illiquid market on Jack Thorne's Fields Medal prospects shows minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite a modest $1,548 open interest and tight 2¢ spread, suggesting limited conviction among traders.
Analysis
This illiquid market on Jack Thorne's Fields Medal prospects shows minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite a modest $1,548 open interest and tight 2¢ spread, suggesting limited conviction among traders. The 45¢ price implies a 45% probability with an unusually high 172.5% annualized yield on the Yes side, though the risk-adjusted yield of 86% is more modest given the binary nature and ~9-month timeframe. With 259 days to expiry and no recent price movement (flat from 44¢ to 45¢ over seven days), this appears to be a niche prediction with insufficient liquidity to draw strong directional conclusions.
Also on polymarket at 45¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
If Jack Thorne wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFIELDS-26-JTHO yes 100