Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This illiquid micro-market on John Pardon's Fields Medal prospects shows a 37% probability with zero 24-hour volume and only $426 open interest, indicating minimal trader conviction.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market on John Pardon's Fields Medal prospects shows a 37% probability with zero 24-hour volume and only $426 open interest, indicating minimal trader conviction. The 9¢ spread and 240% implied yield on the Yes side suggest significant uncertainty about Pardon's candidacy, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action imply the market has settled into equilibrium. With 259 days to expiry and a low Cliff Risk Index of 2, this contract poses minimal tail risk but would require substantial new information about Pardon's mathematical contributions to shift pricing materially.
Also on polymarket at 38¢(Δ -2¢)
Resolution rules
If John Pardon wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFIELDS-26-JPAR yes 100