Julian Sahasrabudhe in the Fields Medal in 2026
Julian Sahasrabudhe is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 10 inside Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026.
Price history
11¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If Julian Sahasrabudhe wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Julian Sahasrabudhe
Rank
#8 of 10
Leader
Hong Wang 80¢
Range
4¢-80¢
Family volume
$176
Identifier
KXFIELDS-26-JSAH
May 27, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#8 of 10
10 outcomes · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$176
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Julian Sahasrabudhe wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXFIELDS-26-JSAH
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 24¢, -13¢ versus this page.
Event family
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$176
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Hong Wang 80¢
Current share
0%
Hong Wang
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-HWAN
Yu Deng
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-YDEN
Jacob Tsimerman
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-JTSI
Jack Thorne
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-JTHO
John Pardon
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-JPAR
Sam Raskin
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-SRAS
Aleksandr Logunov
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-ALOG
Julian Sahasrabudhe
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-JSAH
Will Sawin
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-WSAW
Alexander Efimov
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-AEFI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.