What is the current probability for "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 251 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4708.0% and 4.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This illiquid market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, trading at 11¢ on Kalshi versus 18¢ on Polymarket—a 64% price gap suggesting either mispricing or venue-specific liquidity constraints.

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11¢

Bid/Ask 3/11¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $168·Closes Dec 31, 2026·251d remaining

KXFIELDS-26-AEFI

7-day price22 snapshots · 6 regime

4¢3¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 19

Analysis

6d ago

This illiquid market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, trading at 11¢ on Kalshi versus 18¢ on Polymarket—a 64% price gap suggesting either mispricing or venue-specific liquidity constraints. The extreme implied yield of 4596.8% on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size ($168 open interest) and wide 8¢ spread rather than genuine expected returns, indicating minimal conviction from traders. The 7-cent price increase over seven days combined with zero 24-hour volume suggests this market may be stale, and with 257 days to expiry, the Cliff Risk Index of 32 signals meaningful uncertainty about eventual resolution mechanics.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 10¢(Δ +1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94IY 3420.2%Close-time delta 3711h

Resolution rules

If Alexander Efimov wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4708.0%

IY (No) 4.5%

Adj IY 2354%

CRI 32

Overround 2.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4708.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2354%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

maker

Score

0.295

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 10:59:04 PM

Observability noneEvent type scientific

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:44 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFIELDS-26-AEFI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →