Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Yu Deng
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
John Pardon
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
160 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: Yu Deng
KXFIELDS-26-YDEN
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: Hong Wang
KXFIELDS-26-HWAN
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: Jacob Tsimerman
KXFIELDS-26-JTSI
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: John Pardon
KXFIELDS-26-JPAR
Analysis
The 83% probability for Hong Wang reflects market consensus that he is the leading candidate among mathematical researchers for the 2026 Fields Medal, awarded biennially to mathematicians under 40 for outstanding achievement. Markets price Wang significantly ahead of Jacob Tsimerman (63¢), John Pardon (41¢), and other contenders. The probability will shift based on recent publication records, citation impact, and peer assessments of breakthrough results in the months leading to the August 2026 announcement. The International Mathematical Union will announce the four winners in mid-August 2026, which serves as the hard resolution date. Until then, market pricing reflects evolving perceptions of each candidate's research contributions and the overall strength of the field.
- ›Hong Wang's contract price (82¢) significantly exceeds the second-place candidate (Jacob Tsimerman at 63¢), suggesting market confidence rather than high uncertainty
- ›The 2026 Fields Medal ceremony occurs in August 2026, creating a defined resolution window where new publications or announcements could alter market perception
- ›Polymarket contract volumes are modest ($6–$22 per contract in 24h), indicating limited market depth and potential sensitivity to new information from mathematics conferences or preprint repositories
- ›The four-person medal award structure means even the leading candidate faces a multi-outcome risk; market odds do not reflect certainty
- ›Earlier recognition signals—such as peer nominations, conference prominence, or major theorem announcements between now and summer 2026—will directly inform final market pricing
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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