Jacob Tsimerman in the Fields Medal in 2026
Jacob Tsimerman is priced at 80¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 80¢ bid, 83¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 10 inside Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026.
Price history
80¢ current
+21¢Contract brief
If Jacob Tsimerman wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Jacob Tsimerman
Rank
#2 of 10
Leader
Hong Wang 86¢
Range
3¢-86¢
Family volume
$671
Identifier
KXFIELDS-26-JTSI
Jun 15, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
80¢
Ask
83¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$177
Family rank
#2 of 10
10 outcomes · Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$671
Orderbook snapshot
80 / 83¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Jacob Tsimerman wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXFIELDS-26-JTSI
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 87¢, -7¢ versus this page.
Event family
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$671
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Hong Wang 86¢
Current share
26%
Hong Wang
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-HWAN
Jacob Tsimerman
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-JTSI
Yu Deng
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-YDEN
John Pardon
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-JPAR
Jack Thorne
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-JTHO
Aleksandr Logunov
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-ALOG
Sam Raskin
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-SRAS
Julian Sahasrabudhe
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-JSAH
Alexander Efimov
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-AEFI
Will Sawin
kalshi · KXFIELDS-26-WSAW
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.