Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

This market shows a sharp 29% price rally over seven days to 65¢, reflecting growing conviction around Tsimerman's candidacy with 259 days to expiry. The extremely asymmetric implied yields (72.7% for Yes vs. 273.9% for No) signal heavy skew toward the affirmative outcome, though zero 24-hour volume and modest $1,984.92 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings on modest order flow. The low Cliff Risk Index of 2 and tight 1¢ spread indicate relatively stable market structure despite the illiquidity, though the maker-regime classification suggests this is primarily a price-discovery venue rather than a liquid betting pool.

Resolution rules

If Jacob Tsimerman wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade