Will Tulsi Gabbard announce their departure as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will Tulsi Gabbard announce their departure as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic repricing over seven days, collapsing from 47¢ to 26¢, suggesting either new information reducing departure risk or mean reversion after an initial spike.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing over seven days, collapsing from 47¢ to 26¢, suggesting either new information reducing departure risk or mean reversion after an initial spike. The extreme implied yield of 1382% on the Yes side combined with very low liquidity ($2,708.64 open interest and $246 daily volume) indicates this is a thin, volatile market where small trades can move prices substantially. With 75 days to expiry, a realized volatility of 524%, and a high info arrival rate of 0.9 events per hour, this contract is pricing in significant uncertainty around Gabbard's tenure, though the current 30¢ price suggests the market assigns only a 30% probability to an announcement before the deadline.
Resolution rules
If Tulsi Gabbard leaves (or announces they will leave) as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGABBARDANNOUNCEOUT-26APR-JUL01 yes 100