Will Tulsi Gabbard announce their departure as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jul 1, 2026
Kalshi
18 contracts
Polymarket
2 contracts
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Tulsi Gabbard will publicly announce her resignation from the Director of National Intelligence role before July 1, 2026. The current 38% level sits between more immediate concerns (33% for a June 1 departure) and longer-term uncertainty (62% for departure before 2027), suggesting markets see meaningful departure risk over the next two months but view her staying through mid-2026 as more likely than not. Key drivers include personnel stability within the current administration, any public disagreements over intelligence priorities, and whether Gabbard faces Senate confirmation or operational challenges. The June 1 contract at 33 cents provides near-term clarity on whether departure pressure is accelerating. Comparatively elevated probabilities for other cabinet departures (FBI Director Kash Patel at 66% by July 1) suggest markets are pricing general turnover risk across intelligence and law enforcement leadership.
- ›Gabbard's confirmation and tenure as DNI began in early 2025; departure before July 2026 would represent less than 18 months in role
- ›Related-contract pricing shows FBI Director departure at 66% by July 1 vs. DNI at 38%, indicating differential stability expectations across agencies
- ›The June 1 contract trades at 33 cents vs. July 1 at implied 38%, indicating markets see roughly 5pp additional departure risk in June
- ›No scheduled Senate votes, public policy conflicts, or announced investigations have been reported as of April 2026
- ›Personnel departures in this administration have occurred both voluntarily and through pressure; baseline turnover rates for cabinet positions historically vary 30-50% annually
Contracts
Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before May 1, 2026?: Before May 1, 2026
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Tulsi Gabbard
Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence in before 2027?: Tulsi Gabbard
Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
Will Aaron Rodgers announce their retirement in 2026?: Before the start of the 2026-27 regular season
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?: Tulsi Gabbard
Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
Will LeBron James announce their retirement in 2026?: Before the start of the 2026-27 regular season
Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
Will Howard Lutnick announce their departure as Commerce Secretary before Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
Will Tulsi Gabbard announce their departure as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
Will Howard Lutnick announce their departure as Commerce Secretary before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
Will Tulsi Gabbard announce their departure as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before May 1, 2026?: Before May 1, 2026
Will Tulsi Gabbard announce their departure as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?: Tulsi Gabbard
Will Howard Lutnick announce their departure as Commerce Secretary before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
Will Tulsi Gabbard announce their departure as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026