What is the current probability for "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q1 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 80¢ (80% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q1 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1254.3% and 14058.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q1 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q1 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market is pricing in a 73% probability of Q1 2026 GDP exceeding 1.5% growth, with the contract having rallied 4 cents over seven days, suggesting modest bullish momentum as we approach the April 30th resolution.

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80¢

Bid/Ask 76/78¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $2,128.48·OI $46,217.55·Closes Apr 30, 2026·9d remaining

KXGDP-26APR30-T1.5

7-day price202 snapshots · 39 regime

78¢77¢ current

Apr 963¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in a 73% probability of Q1 2026 GDP exceeding 1.5% growth, with the contract having rallied 4 cents over seven days, suggesting modest bullish momentum as we approach the April 30th resolution. The extreme implied yield on the No side (6983%) reflects the sharp cliff risk (index of 3) inherent in binary markets near expiry, while the tight 1-cent spread and $43.7K open interest indicate reasonable liquidity despite only $3.2K in daily volume. The 238% realized volatility and 0.69 vol ratio suggest the market has priced in meaningful uncertainty, though the neutral regime score (0.568) indicates no strong directional bias from broader market conditions.

Resolution rules

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1254.3%

IY (No) 14058.4%

Adj IY 13876%

CRI 3

RV 123%

VR 0.34

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1254.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	14058.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	13876%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	123%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.34	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:04:05 PM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGDP-26APR30-T1.5 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →