Will real GDP increase by more than 4.0% in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.0%
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Above 0.0%
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$614
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 29, 2027
339 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will real gdp increase by more than
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026?: Above 4.0%
KXGDP-26OCT30-T4.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2026?: Above 0.0%
KXGDP-26OCT30-T0.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q4 2026?: Above 4.0%
KXGDP-27JAN28-T4.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q1 2027?: Above 3.5%
KXGDP-27APR29-T3.5
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q2 2027?: Above 3.5%
KXGDP-27JUL29-T3.5
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q3 2026?: Above 3.0%
KXGDP-26OCT30-T3.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?: Above 3.5%
KXGDP-27JAN28-T3.5
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026?: Above 1.0%
KXGDP-26OCT30-T1.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q1 2027?: Above 1.0%
KXGDP-27APR29-T1.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q1 2027?: Above 0.5%
KXGDP-27APR29-T0.5
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q1 2027?: Above 0.0%
KXGDP-27APR29-T0.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q2 2027?: Above 4.0%
KXGDP-27JUL29-T4.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q2 2027?: Above 3.0%
KXGDP-27JUL29-T3.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q2 2027?: Above 2.5%
KXGDP-27JUL29-T2.5
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q2 2027?: Above 2.0%
KXGDP-27JUL29-T2.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q2 2027?: Above 1.5%
KXGDP-27JUL29-T1.5
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2027?: Above 1.0%
KXGDP-27JUL29-T1.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q2 2027?: Above 0.5%
KXGDP-27JUL29-T0.5
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q2 2027?: Above 0.0%
KXGDP-27JUL29-T0.0
Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q3 2026?: Above 2.0%
KXGDP-26OCT30-T2.0
Analysis
This question assesses whether U.S. real GDP will grow faster than 4.0% annualized in the first quarter of 2026. At 92% probability, markets are pricing this as highly likely. The current assessment reflects recent economic momentum: labor markets remain relatively resilient, consumer spending has held up, and inflation has moderated from peak levels, creating conditions that could support above-trend growth. The primary bearish case rests on potential demand slowdown, tightening financial conditions, or external shocks. Resolution depends on the Bureau of Economic Analysis's official Q1 2026 real GDP estimate, scheduled for release in late April 2026. The gap between the leader's high confidence (92%) and the runner-up's lower probability (87%) suggests material uncertainty persists about whether growth will exceed the 4.0% threshold versus staying between 2.5–3.5%.
- ›Q1 2026 labor force participation and employment levels relative to trend — weak job growth would reduce income and consumption capacity
- ›PCE spending momentum through March 2026 — consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of GDP and recent retail data suggests moderate but not exceptional demand
- ›Federal Reserve policy stance and financial conditions between now and Q1 2026 — restrictive rates or credit tightening could dampen investment and hiring
- ›Goods trade balance and inventory accumulation — large imports or inventory rundown could subtract significantly from GDP calculation
- ›Official BEA release of Q1 2026 real GDP estimate in late April 2026 — this is the deterministic resolution event that will settle the contract
What moved the line
- Aug 18Above 0.5%↓76pp79→3¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above 0.0%↓70pp87→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above 1.0%↓60pp69→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 0.0%↓56pp88→32¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above 0.0%↑55pp32→87¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in economy
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 36% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 62% · 1d
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 50% · 1d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 47% · 1d
- Will the South Africa inflation rate MoM for May 2026 be above 1.0%last 68% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In economy
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.