Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Kalshi, closing July 30, 2026. The 78¢ price reflects strong consensus that Q2 2026 GDP will exceed 1.0% growth, but the extremely thin liquidity ($708 open interest, $53 daily volume) and massive yield asymmetry (1237.9% for No vs.
Analysis
The 78¢ price reflects strong consensus that Q2 2026 GDP will exceed 1.0% growth, but the extremely thin liquidity ($708 open interest, $53 daily volume) and massive yield asymmetry (1237.9% for No vs. 98.5% for Yes) suggest this pricing may not reflect true uncertainty—the No side's outsized yield indicates severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction. With 105 days to expiration and a flat 7-day price trajectory, this market lacks the trading activity to validate the high implied probability, making it vulnerable to sharp repricing if economic data deteriorates.
Resolution rules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.0 yes 100