Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 68% probability that Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 68¢ on Kalshi, closing July 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1.42 in 24-hour volume against $401 open interest, creating significant execution risk despite the tight 3¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1.42 in 24-hour volume against $401 open interest, creating significant execution risk despite the tight 3¢ spread. The 63¢ price implies a modest 63% probability of Q2 2026 GDP exceeding 1.5% growth, which appears reasonable given recent trend data, though the asymmetric implied yields (196.5% for Yes vs. 621% for No) suggest the No side is substantially underpriced relative to tail risk. With 104 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this market lacks the liquidity depth to confidently trade at scale, making it better suited for small speculative positions than hedging activity.
Resolution rules
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.5 yes 100