Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $176 open interest, making the 2092.5% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $176 open interest, making the 2092.5% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 5¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 10¢ price, and the recent downward drift from 9¢ to 8¢ suggests weakening conviction in DeVries's advancement prospects. With 201 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 12, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than a liquid betting opportunity.
Also on polymarket at 7¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
If Edna DeVries advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-EDEV yes 100