Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing August 31, 2027. This market shows extreme volatility (23,995% realized vol) despite modest price movement over seven days (53¢ to 56¢), suggesting sporadic, outsized trades in a highly illiquid venue with only $2,582 open interest and $520 daily volume.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (23,995% realized vol) despite modest price movement over seven days (53¢ to 56¢), suggesting sporadic, outsized trades in a highly illiquid venue with only $2,582 open interest and $520 daily volume. The 5¢ spread and neutral regime indicate genuine uncertainty, though the 92.6% implied yield on the No side suggests the market may be pricing in significant tail risk or experiencing pricing inefficiency given the 502-day time horizon to resolution. The 1.1 information arrivals per hour and elevated vol ratio (47.66) point to an active but thin market where individual trades can move prices substantially.
Also on polymarket at 72¢(Δ -13¢)
Resolution rules
If Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVAKPRIMARY-26-JKRE yes 100