Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

This illiquid market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1816% and a massive 27¢ spread, suggesting highly uncertain sentiment around Kreiss-Tomkins' primary prospects despite the 55¢ midpoint implying a coin-flip outcome. The astronomical implied yields (363% risk-adjusted) reflect the thin $73 open interest and minimal $4 daily volume, making this more of a speculative niche bet than a reliable probability estimate. With 123 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.9 events per hour, the market is pricing in significant upcoming developments that could dramatically shift the 46¢-to-55¢ price movement seen over the past week.

Resolution rules

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

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