Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.35 on Apr 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.35 on Apr 30?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with only $4.03 open interest and a massive 38¢ spread, making the 99¢ price unreliable despite the 1988.8% implied yield on Yes.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with only $4.03 open interest and a massive 38¢ spread, making the 99¢ price unreliable despite the 1988.8% implied yield on Yes. The sharp 28¢ price decline over 7 days (89¢ to 61¢) suggests recent repricing away from the current quote, indicating the market may not reflect true consensus on H200 pricing in 14 months. With 12 days to resolution and near-zero volume, this appears to be a stale quote in a thinly-traded contract where the wide spread and extreme yields signal high uncertainty rather than genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If the value of H200 compute per hour is above $2.35 on Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXH200MON-26APR30-2.350 yes 100