What is the current probability for "Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.47 on Apr 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 80¢ (80% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.47 on Apr 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1032.5% and 16519.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.47 on Apr 30?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.47 on Apr 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.47 on Apr 30?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $20 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 80¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability.

████████████████████████████████░░░░░░░░

80¢

Bid/Ask 0/99¢·Spread 99¢·Vol $0·OI $20·Closes May 1, 2026·9d remaining

KXH200MON-26APR30-2.470

7-day price125 snapshots · 6 regime

94¢80¢ current

Apr 101¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $20 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 80¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability. The massive 99¢ spread and astronomical yields (766.8% for Yes, 12,268.9% for No) indicate severe pricing inefficiency rather than genuine market consensus. With 12 days to expiration and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 4, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than an actively traded market worth analyzing for directional conviction.

Resolution rules

If the value of H200 compute per hour is above $2.47 on Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1032.5%

IY (No) 16519.6%

Adj IY 16520%

CRI 4

RV 503304%

VR 38.41

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1032.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16519.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	16520%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	503304%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	38.41	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	21.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

99¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:57:23 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:53:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXH200MON-26APR30-2.470 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →