Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.48 on Apr 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.48 on Apr 30?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (88%) that H200 compute pricing will exceed $2.48/hour by April 30, 2026, yet the astronomical "No" yield of 17,988% and near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (88%) that H200 compute pricing will exceed $2.48/hour by April 30, 2026, yet the astronomical "No" yield of 17,988% and near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. The 7-day price surge from 55¢ to 88¢ combined with a realized volatility exceeding 10,000% indicates extreme uncertainty despite the high headline probability, and the 11¢ spread on just $355 open interest leaves little room for confident position-taking.
Resolution rules
If the value of H200 compute per hour is above $2.48 on Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXH200MON-26APR30-2.480 yes 100