Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.48 on Apr 30?

Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.48 on Apr 30?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (88%) that H200 compute pricing will exceed $2.48/hour by April 30, 2026, yet the astronomical "No" yield of 17,988% and near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction.

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99¢
Bid/Ask 88/99¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $0·OI $359.01·Closes May 1, 2026·9d remaining
KXH200MON-26APR30-2.480
7-day price42 snapshots · 9 regime
96¢88¢ current
Apr 108¢Apr 20

Analysis

6d ago

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (88%) that H200 compute pricing will exceed $2.48/hour by April 30, 2026, yet the astronomical "No" yield of 17,988% and near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. The 7-day price surge from 55¢ to 88¢ combined with a realized volatility exceeding 10,000% indicates extreme uncertainty despite the high headline probability, and the 11¢ spread on just $355 open interest leaves little room for confident position-taking.

Resolution rules

If the value of H200 compute per hour is above $2.48 on Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 563.2%
IY (No) 30285.9%
Adj IY 15143%
CRI 7
Overround 21.6%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)563.2%
IY (No)30285.9%
Adj IY15143%
CRI7
Overround21.6%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
11¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 7:56:16 AM
Observability mediumEvent type financial
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:53:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXH200MON-26APR30-2.480 yes 100

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