Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.65 on Apr 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.65 on Apr 30?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (99%) that H200 compute pricing will exceed $2.65/hour by April 30, 2026, yet the unusually wide 37¢ spread and anemic $116 daily volume suggest thin liquidity is driving the extreme pricing rather than strong conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (99%) that H200 compute pricing will exceed $2.65/hour by April 30, 2026, yet the unusually wide 37¢ spread and anemic $116 daily volume suggest thin liquidity is driving the extreme pricing rather than strong conviction. The implied yield of 1987% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high for such a short 12-day window, indicating either significant mispricing or that traders expect rapid resolution clarity, though the recent price movement from 40¢ to 61¢ over seven days suggests growing confidence in the affirmative outcome.
Resolution rules
If the value of H200 compute per hour is above $2.65 on Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXH200MON-26APR30-2.650 yes 100