What is the current probability for "Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.67 on Apr 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 79¢ (79% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.67 on Apr 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1097.8% and 15536.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.67 on Apr 30?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.67 on Apr 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.67 on Apr 30?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 97¢ spread despite only 11 days to expiry.

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79¢

Bid/Ask 0/99¢·Spread 99¢·Vol $0·OI $263.62·Closes May 1, 2026·9d remaining

KXH200MON-26APR30-2.670

7-day price146 snapshots · 4 regime

85¢79¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 97¢ spread despite only 11 days to expiry. The 79¢ price implies 79% probability for Yes, yet the annualized yield for a No position reaches an absurd 12,155%, signaling severe mispricing likely driven by the tiny $263.62 open interest and recent price collapse from 25¢ to 1¢ over seven days. With cliff risk index at 4 and resolution just 11 days away, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to trust the current price as a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

If the value of H200 compute per hour is above $2.67 on Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1097.8%

IY (No) 15536.3%

Adj IY 15536%

CRI 4

RV 497010%

VR 37.25

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1097.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15536.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	15536%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	497010%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	37.25	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	21.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

99¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:56:16 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:53:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXH200MON-26APR30-2.670 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →