Will there be more than 15 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will there be more than 15 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. This illiquid market pricing a 16% probability of exceeding 15 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026 shows extreme asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a 3,025% implied yield versus just 8.4% for No—a 360x spread that reflects minimal open interest of only $9.85 and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This illiquid market pricing a 16% probability of exceeding 15 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026 shows extreme asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a 3,025% implied yield versus just 8.4% for No—a 360x spread that reflects minimal open interest of only $9.85 and zero 24-hour volume. The 8¢ bid-ask spread is substantial relative to the 16¢ midpoint, and the modest 4¢ price increase over seven days suggests limited conviction despite the market having 229 days to expiry. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 19 and neutral regime score indicate this contract carries execution risk and lacks clear directional momentum, making it suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with illiquidity and wide spreads.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 15 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T15 yes 100