Will there be more than 6 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026
Leader sits at 72% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
40¢
Above 5
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$27
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 2, 2026
160 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 9 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 9
KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T9
Will there be more than 7 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 7
KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T7
Will there be more than 6 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 6
KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T6
Will there be more than 4 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 4
KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T4
Will there be more than 8 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 8
KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T8
Will there be more than 5 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 5
KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T5
Will there be more than 15 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 15
KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T15
Will there be more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 12
KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T12
Will there be more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 10
KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T10
Analysis
This contract reflects traders' assessment that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will produce at least 7 hurricanes, currently priced at 78% probability. The forecast is informed by historical patterns: the baseline climatological expectation for Atlantic hurricanes is 7-8 per season, and recent decades have seen elevated activity due to warmer ocean temperatures. The probability could shift significantly based on sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Atlantic through summer, the strength of El Niño or La Niña conditions, and early-season storm development. The National Hurricane Center typically issues its official seasonal forecast in late May, which often serves as a reference point for market expectations. Resolution depends entirely on accurate counts from the National Weather Service through the November 30 end of hurricane season.
- ›Atlantic sea-surface temperatures from June through August will influence atmospheric instability and hurricane formation rates
- ›The development or persistence of El Niño conditions would suppress Atlantic hurricane activity; La Niña would favor increased activity
- ›The National Hurricane Center's May 2026 seasonal forecast, releasing the official climatological prediction, typically anchors market expectations
- ›Early-season hurricane counts (June-July) provide empirical data that traders use to update probabilities for the full season
- ›Wind shear patterns and atmospheric moisture levels during peak season months (August-October) determine whether storm systems can intensify into hurricanes
What moved the line
- Jun 21Above 4↓12pp68→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 4↓11pp77→66¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 4↑10pp62→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 9↑8pp4→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 5↓7pp50→43¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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