Will there be more than 7 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will there be more than 7 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1433% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 10¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of exceeding 7 major hurricanes in 2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1433% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 10¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of exceeding 7 major hurricanes in 2026. The near-zero 24-hour volume and modest $326 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the wide 5¢ spread a reflection of thin order books rather than genuine uncertainty. With a high Cliff Risk Index of 9 and 229 days to expiry, this appears to be a classic low-liquidity trap where the quoted price may not reflect true market consensus, particularly given that NOAA's 2024 forecast predicted 8 hurricanes on average.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 7 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T7 yes 100